Industry analysts at DFC Intelligence are predicting that by 2020, more than 100 million Xbox Ones will have been sold. The research group also estimates that games revenue will increase from $68 billion in 2013 to $77 billion in 2014 and says that a console war between Xbox One and PlayStation 4 could start to drive down prices.
The predicted price cuts should help to drive sales up, and it will be interesting to see if such high sales can be achieved. 100 million units is no mean feat, and it is a landmark that has only been reached by Nintendo’s Wii so far. But don’t get too excited about a sudden price drop; David Cole from DFC said:
“We modeled price cuts into that but we think they are going to happen fairly slowly and there are likely to be more bundles versus just a straight price cut. We think they will do their best to maintain a solid price point.”
The report says that 2014 will be a big year for hardware sales, but software will pick up in 2015. DFC says that it is being “conservative” with its estimate, largely because of the possibility of a new console from Apple or Nintendo hitting the market.
It looks as though the experts are expecting console gaming revenue to follow the lead of mobile games, with large profits being made from in-game purchase and add-ons. “Virtual items should become much bigger but we see them more as add-ons for established titles. So you buy the game and they continue to sell new content. Sports will be an interesting category to watch as it always needs to be updated.”